Distribution of Salt Lake Residents by Political Affiliation

Kurt A. Fisher

2020-02-21

Figure 1. Percent of Democratic Voters by Salt Lake City Precinct. N=121 of 126 precincts. Source: Salt Lake County Clerk (2020), SLC City Corp. Open GIS (2019), Utah.gov GIS (2019).

Figure 1. Percent of Democratic Voters by Salt Lake City Precinct. N=121 of 126 precincts. Source: Salt Lake County Clerk (2020), SLC City Corp. Open GIS (2019), Utah.gov GIS (2019).

Introduction

Within Salt Lake City’s municipal limits,For the general reader, this article provides background details concerning commonplace beliefs regarding relative Utah Republican and Democratic voting power within Salt Lake City municipal limits. A related article concerns relative Utah Republican and Democratic voting power statewide. See About and Conflict Disclosures, below. the order of relative voting power of political parties including unaffiliated voters are: Unaffiliated, Democrat, Republican, and All Other Minor Parties. Overall Figure 3 below shows a picture of politically well-mixed neighborhoods within the City. The maximum percent in any precinct for the three major party affiliations are: Unaffiliated - 48; Democrat - 46; Republican - 44. There are no islands of political homogeneity in the City where one party affiliation passes 66 percent - a supermajority.

The potential impact from Salt Lake City’s recent apartment construction boom to impact council district apportionment is discussed in a separate forthcoming memorandum.

Discussion

Where do members of various party affiliations within Salt Lake City’s boundaries live? Table 1 describes the distribution of Salt Lake City registered voters by political party affiliation: Unaffiliated - 41 percent; Democrat - 35 percent; Republican - 19 percent; and All Other Parties - 5 percent.

Table 1. Count of Registered Voters by Party Affiliation for Utah Statewide and within Salt Lake City Municipal Limits

Item Unaffiliated Democratic Republican Others
Salt Lake City 38541 32334 17421 4758
Salt Lake City Percent 41 35 19 5
Utah 508131 190135 675205 78747
Utah Percent 35 13 46 5

Note: For Salt Lake City, 93054 Active Registered voters in 121 of 126 Precincts on January 10, 2020. For Statewide 1452218 Registered Voters in 29 Counties on December 31, 2019. Tables Addendum A1, Part 1, and Addendum A1, Part 2, list Salt Lake City precinct level detail for this summary. Source: Salt Lake County Clerk (2020Salt Lake County Clerk. 2020. “Salt Lake City Precincts - Voters Registered in All Parties , File: SLC Precincts - Voters Registered in All Parties (as of Jan 19 2020).xls in author’s possession.” Salt Lake City, Utah: Salt Lake County Clerk’s Office.), Utah Lieutenant Governor Office (2020Utah Lieutenant Governor Office. 2020. “Utah Voter Registration Statistics for 2019, recv’d Jan. 17, 2020, File: 2019 Utah Political Party Registration Data.xlsx in author’s possession.” Salt Lake City, Utah: State of Utah. https://voteinfo.utah.gov/current-voter-registration-statistics/.) .

Salt Lake City’s distribution of registered voters by party affiliation are closer to national characteristics than the State as a whole. Based on the Gallup organization interviewing 29,525 adults during 2019, 30 percent of Americans identified as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans and 41 percent as independent (Jones (2020Jones, Jeffrey M. 2020. “U.S. Party Preferences Steady During Trump Era.” Washington, D.C. https://news.gallup.com/poll/274694/party-preferences-steady-during-trump-era.aspx.)). The Gallup pollster did not separate the independent category into unaffiliated and other party subcategories.

Figure 2 shows within each party, the relative geographic distribution within each of Salt Lake City’s voting precincts by both count and percent. A reference map of precinct numbers appears in Addendum Figure A1. Supporting data is listed in Addendum Tables A1-Part1 and A1-Part2. Addendum Table A2 lists by precinct number, the percentage of registered Unaffiliated, Democrat, Republican, and Other minor party voters.

Figure 2. Distribution of the Count of Salt Lake City RegisteredVoters

Note: Colors within each sub-figure of the top and bottom rows represent the quintiles of percent. Light=low; Dark=high in all sub-figures. The middle row of labels lists the total registered voters and percent for that category of registered voters for all precincts. The bottom row is the same as the top row, except areas are proportional to the number of registered voters in each precinct. The cartogram algorithm was not able properly render Precincts 2 and 20 on the northwest and northeast corners because the total number of registered voters to the land area was too small. N=121 of 126 precincts containing 93054 active registered voters as of January 10, 2020. Source: Salt Lake County Clerk (2020); State of Utah (2019aState of Utah. 2019a. “Utah.gov GIS Portal, County Boundaries Database (Web, GIS, Counties).” https://gis.utah.gov/data/boundaries/.).

Some residence patterns can be seen in the Figure 2 and the first panel by count of voters. Unaffiliated registered voters numerically tend to live on the west side and the high Avenues above 11th Avenue. Democrats are concentrated in the central, east central and near west side. Republicans live in the high Avenues above 11th Avenue, downtown, on the west side south and in the southeast. But residence is not the same as proportional political party presence.

Do members of various party affiliations have relatively more voting power in some precincts? Figure 3, second panel by percent, below, shows within each party, the percentage of the registered voters in each precinct that declare a party affiliation. Some north-south banding is evident in the lower panel of Figure 3. Unaffiliated registered voters are relatively more frequent in precincts on the westside; Democratic registered voters are relatively more frequent in precincts in the city’s mid-section; and Republican registerd voters are relatively more frequent in precincts the east bench. The distribution of non-voters is not estimated.

Figure 3. Distribution of Percent of Salt Lake City Registered Voters by Precinct

Note: Colors within each sub-figure of the top and bottom rows represent the quintiles of percent. Light=low; Dark=high in all sub-figures. The middle row of labels lists the total registered voters and percent for that category of registered voters for all precincts. The bottom row is the same as the top row, except areas are proportional to the number of registered voters in each precinct. The cartogram algorithm was not able properly render Precincts 2 and 20 on the northwest and northeast corners because the total number of registered voters to the land area was too small. N=121 of 126 precincts containing 93054 active registered voters as of January 10, 2020. Source: Salt Lake County Election Clerk (2020); Utah Open GIS (2019).

Overall Figure 3 shows a picture of politically well-mixed neighborhoods. The maximum percent in any precinct for the three major party affiliations are: Unaffiliated - 48; Democrat - 46; Republican - 44. There are no islands of political homogeneity in the City where one party affiliation passes 66 percent - a supermajority.

Future Work

The 2020 census and 2020 through 2022 elections will provide insights into the changed demographics and political affiliations of the downtown, Central and East Central neighborhoods. The 2020 election cycle for the United States President, Utah Governor and Utah Lieutenant Governor, will provide insight into the political affiliations of the new arrivals on the state level. The United States President, Utah Governor and Utah Lieutenant Governor Office races occur in leap years. The next Salt Lake City municipal elections occur in 2021 for Council Districts 1, 3, 5 and 7, and in 2023, for Mayor and Council Districts 2, 4 and 6 (Salt Lake City Corporation (2019Salt Lake City Corporation. 2019. “Open GIS Portal (Web, Database, Council Districts).” http://gis-slcgov.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/dd1f1de0908b471e8a3175977bfec309{_}5.), council boundaries; Addendum Figure A1).

Future work will look for changes in the distribution of party affiliation as Salt Lake City continues to undergo rapid gentrification begun in 2017 and concentrated in the City’s inner, urban core. After the initial release of the 2020 census counts, analysis of the displacement of Salt Lake City’s low- and moderate- income population from the East Central neighborhood due to gentrification will be quantified. We do not know where non-voters live, and future work will examine the distribution of non-voters. Presently, available datasets do not contain contemporaneous information on the total adult population and on registered voters by precincts. The 2020 census count and 2020 voter registration data may provide contemporaneous time series for both non-voters and registered voters.

Conclusion

Salt Lake City consists of politically well-mixed neighborhoods. There are no islands of political homogeneity anywhere in the City.

About and Conflict Disclosures

I do not have an undergraduate degree. I completed three years of undergraduate studies in mathematics with an emphasis in statistics and I have over thirty-five years of experience as a litigation paralegal in both the private sector and government.

I have no conflict disclosures with respect to the topic discussed in this paper.

This report is the first in a series of four reports. The second report concerns the distribution of registered voters by party affiliation within Utah and compares political affiliations between counties (Fisher (2020Fisher, Kurt A. 2020. “Utah Statewide Political Party Affiliations: Distribution and Unaffiliated Voters.” Salt Lake City, Utah. http://fisherka.csolutionshosting.net/misc/Elections/UtahStatewidePoliticalPartyAffiliations.htm.)). A third paper will concern the distribution of religious adherents in Utah by congregation. A fourth paper will review the growth on housing in Salt Lake City since 2000, ninety-five percent has been new apartment construction. The fifth paper will concern demographic and other factors in the November 2019 Salt Lake City Mayoral Election.

Addendum

Figure A1. Voting Precincts for Salt Lake City Municipal Boundaries by Land Area

Note: N=121 of 126 precincts color coded as East or West side. East or West is respect to 300 West Street). Precinct SLC001 on the City’s Southwest is not included in this graph. Source: State of Utah (2019bState of Utah. 2019b. “Utah.gov GIS Portal, Vista Ballot Database (Web, GIS, Precincts).” https://gis.utah.gov/data/political/voter-precincts/.).

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Table A1, Part 1. Registered Voters by Party Affiliation within Salt Lake City Municipal Limits. Note: For Salt Lake City, N= 121 and 93,054 Active Registered Voters of 126 Precincts as of January 10 2020. Source: Salt Lake County Elections Division.

Precinct Id Unaffiliated Democrat Republican All Others Precinct Total
SLC002 299 204 150 43 696
SLC003 373 291 146 39 849
SLC004 250 156 118 28 552
SLC005 307 234 149 33 723
SLC006 219 167 85 20 491
SLC007 355 218 182 45 800
SLC008 81 72 46 19 218
SLC009 445 268 217 55 985
SLC011 367 268 163 38 836
SLC012 454 303 207 48 1012
SLC013 198 143 69 23 433
SLC014 213 166 123 23 525
SLC015 471 345 219 71 1106
SLC017 165 127 55 18 365
SLC018 431 314 158 58 961
SLC019 506 447 157 85 1195
SLC020 443 367 250 36 1096
SLC021 249 276 92 36 653
SLC023 367 324 138 57 886
SLC025 361 283 291 60 995
SLC026 289 352 193 23 857
SLC027 303 234 155 23 715
SLC028 61 34 46 4 145
SLC029 253 297 114 28 692
SLC030 275 324 98 23 720
SLC031 270 251 75 30 626
SLC032 378 352 182 53 965
SLC033 352 273 113 41 779
SLC034 271 301 61 19 652
SLC035 276 176 372 34 858
SLC039 324 318 74 34 750
SLC040 218 189 86 22 515
SLC041 365 418 159 35 977
SLC042 246 249 104 26 625
SLC043 218 167 135 20 540
SLC045 262 183 133 51 629
SLC048 463 337 182 81 1063
SLC049 375 246 142 52 815
SLC050 510 407 188 71 1176
SLC051 288 212 111 45 656
SLC052 470 413 155 128 1166
SLC054 463 376 345 75 1259
SLC055-01 319 290 93 66 768
SLC055-02 45 35 12 9 101
SLC057 380 411 97 63 951
SLC058 233 193 107 46 579
SLC059 416 445 108 59 1028
SLC060 447 408 149 59 1063
SLC062 480 447 155 101 1183
SLC062-02 1 2 1 1 5
SLC064 386 337 117 61 901
SLC065 346 342 114 47 849
SLC068 290 242 113 41 686
SLC069 73 91 36 4 204
SLC070 480 482 158 70 1190
SLC071 325 265 108 42 740
SLC072 445 362 149 60 1016
SLC076 369 322 108 38 837
SLC078 250 246 116 32 644
SLC080 247 135 194 50 626
SLC083 482 338 202 52 1074
SLC085 467 339 214 53 1073
SLC086 428 266 169 65 928
SLC090 362 324 94 48 828
SLC091 278 263 67 51 659
SLC092 360 393 142 62 957
SLC093 327 360 77 56 820
SLC094 359 348 86 41 834
SLC097 466 456 128 53 1103
SLC098 415 356 122 43 936
SLC099 259 270 92 33 654
SLC100 228 192 78 27 525
SLC101 300 228 72 30 630
SLC102 244 174 70 28 516
SLC103 380 416 108 45 949
SLC105 338 306 96 36 776
SLC106 261 275 165 19 720
SLC107 273 291 50 25 639
SLC108 276 301 99 30 706
SLC109 397 386 93 43 919
SLC110 335 357 101 43 836
SLC112 223 197 56 23 499
SLC114 440 409 148 54 1051
SLC115 296 291 97 39 723
SLC116 244 241 128 19 632
SLC117 262 220 170 17 669
SLC118 268 246 154 29 697
SLC119 345 332 119 35 831
SLC121 410 358 150 38 956
SLC123 282 265 129 32 708
SLC125 307 262 131 33 733
SLC128 361 262 300 26 949
SLC129 253 207 141 17 618
SLC130 305 207 240 19 771
SLC131 309 222 145 23 699
SLC132 404 268 215 34 921
SLC134 219 162 137 18 536
SLC135 245 160 235 11 651
SLC136 219 206 215 26 666
SLC137 304 233 176 26 739
SLC138 375 269 229 37 910
SLC140 212 164 279 12 667
SLC141 309 215 171 36 731
SLC142 317 237 158 43 755
SLC143 282 212 133 28 655
SLC144 284 187 192 25 688
SLC146 177 127 52 31 387
SLC147 392 381 146 67 986
SLC148 264 202 103 38 607
SLC149 387 326 158 52 923
SLC151-01 389 354 170 56 969
SLC152 371 290 180 39 880
SLC155 375 239 243 33 890
SLC156 319 219 151 31 720
SLC158 262 185 131 30 608
SLC159-01 258 183 163 31 635
SLC160 436 263 220 46 965
SLC163 309 161 262 25 757
SLC164 276 219 138 37 670
SLC166 273 118 321 18 730
SLC167 327 259 237 39 862

Table A1, Part 2. Registered Voters by Minor Party Affiliation within Salt Lake City. Note: For Salt Lake City, N = 121 and 4,758 Active Registered Voters of 126 Precincts as of January 10, 2020 as of Jan. 10, 2020. Source: Salt Lake County Elections Division.

Precinct Id Independent Libertarian Green United Utah Constitution
SLC002 27 13 2 0 1
SLC003 25 7 1 1 5
SLC004 19 5 0 1 3
SLC005 20 11 1 1 0
SLC006 16 4 0 0 0
SLC007 27 10 1 5 2
SLC008 10 8 1 0 0
SLC009 33 13 5 0 4
SLC011 25 6 5 0 2
SLC012 29 9 6 1 3
SLC013 14 6 1 2 0
SLC014 14 4 2 0 3
SLC015 43 13 9 1 5
SLC017 8 4 3 2 1
SLC018 28 18 4 3 5
SLC019 57 23 1 3 1
SLC020 29 4 3 0 0
SLC021 22 12 0 1 1
SLC023 36 17 0 2 2
SLC025 33 19 4 2 2
SLC026 13 7 1 1 1
SLC027 19 2 0 2 0
SLC028 2 2 0 0 0
SLC029 17 9 1 1 0
SLC030 17 5 1 0 0
SLC031 16 7 7 0 0
SLC032 32 16 4 1 0
SLC033 26 10 3 0 2
SLC034 15 1 3 0 0
SLC035 21 8 1 3 1
SLC039 26 5 2 0 1
SLC040 13 9 0 0 0
SLC041 20 10 5 0 0
SLC042 19 5 1 0 1
SLC043 14 5 1 0 0
SLC045 36 12 1 1 1
SLC048 43 26 7 1 4
SLC049 30 15 2 1 4
SLC050 45 16 3 3 4
SLC051 24 9 3 3 6
SLC052 85 28 6 3 6
SLC054 51 23 1 0 0
SLC055-01 42 15 3 3 3
SLC055-02 7 2 0 0 0
SLC057 38 14 6 3 2
SLC058 29 10 4 3 0
SLC059 41 10 5 0 3
SLC060 34 15 6 1 3
SLC062 65 26 4 4 2
SLC062-02 1 0 0 0 0
SLC064 40 14 2 3 2
SLC065 30 13 2 1 1
SLC068 28 7 4 1 1
SLC069 4 0 0 0 0
SLC070 51 15 4 0 0
SLC071 23 14 2 2 1
SLC072 41 14 5 0 0
SLC076 27 7 3 0 1
SLC078 25 4 2 1 0
SLC080 31 16 0 1 2
SLC083 31 9 2 5 5
SLC085 28 9 8 5 3
SLC086 37 13 3 6 6
SLC090 31 11 4 1 1
SLC091 31 11 5 1 3
SLC092 39 14 4 1 4
SLC093 32 18 3 0 3
SLC094 21 15 5 0 0
SLC097 32 15 3 0 3
SLC098 28 8 6 0 1
SLC099 21 7 3 0 2
SLC100 15 7 2 1 2
SLC101 21 6 2 0 1
SLC102 22 3 3 0 0
SLC103 32 9 3 1 0
SLC105 17 11 6 1 1
SLC106 12 4 1 1 1
SLC107 12 9 3 1 0
SLC108 16 11 2 0 1
SLC109 26 9 8 0 0
SLC110 24 10 8 0 1
SLC112 14 3 3 1 2
SLC114 32 12 7 1 2
SLC115 30 5 3 0 1
SLC116 14 3 2 0 0
SLC117 11 4 2 0 0
SLC118 21 5 3 0 0
SLC119 24 8 2 0 1
SLC121 27 11 0 0 0
SLC123 21 5 5 1 0
SLC125 21 7 5 0 0
SLC128 15 6 2 2 1
SLC129 9 4 3 0 1
SLC130 12 6 1 0 0
SLC131 17 4 0 2 0
SLC132 25 4 3 1 1
SLC134 16 2 0 0 0
SLC135 9 2 0 0 0
SLC136 20 3 1 1 1
SLC137 18 8 0 0 0
SLC138 25 10 0 1 1
SLC140 8 1 2 1 0
SLC141 23 9 3 1 0
SLC142 26 13 3 0 1
SLC143 17 8 1 0 2
SLC144 15 4 3 2 1
SLC146 19 9 1 1 1
SLC147 42 19 2 1 3
SLC148 24 12 2 0 0
SLC149 39 10 2 1 0
SLC151-01 37 13 1 1 4
SLC152 26 9 1 1 2
SLC155 22 7 2 0 2
SLC156 16 10 2 1 2
SLC158 19 7 2 1 1
SLC159-01 18 9 4 0 0
SLC160 34 10 2 0 0
SLC163 20 4 1 0 0
SLC164 29 6 1 0 1
SLC166 13 4 0 1 0
SLC167 23 11 2 2 1
Total 3035 1128 317 116 162

Table A2. Registered Voters within Salt Lake City by Percent by Precinct

Precinct Id Unaffiliated Democrat Republican All Others
SLC002 43 29 22 6
SLC003 44 34 17 5
SLC004 45 28 21 5
SLC005 42 32 21 5
SLC006 45 34 17 4
SLC007 44 27 23 6
SLC008 37 33 21 9
SLC009 45 27 22 6
SLC011 44 32 19 5
SLC012 45 30 20 5
SLC013 46 33 16 5
SLC014 41 32 23 4
SLC015 43 31 20 6
SLC017 45 35 15 5
SLC018 45 33 16 6
SLC019 42 37 13 7
SLC020 40 33 23 3
SLC021 38 42 14 6
SLC023 41 37 16 6
SLC025 36 28 29 6
SLC026 34 41 23 3
SLC027 42 33 22 3
SLC028 42 23 32 3
SLC029 37 43 16 4
SLC030 38 45 14 3
SLC031 43 40 12 5
SLC032 39 36 19 5
SLC033 45 35 15 5
SLC034 42 46 9 3
SLC035 32 21 43 4
SLC039 43 42 10 5
SLC040 42 37 17 4
SLC041 37 43 16 4
SLC042 39 40 17 4
SLC043 40 31 25 4
SLC045 42 29 21 8
SLC048 44 32 17 8
SLC049 46 30 17 6
SLC050 43 35 16 6
SLC051 44 32 17 7
SLC052 40 35 13 11
SLC054 37 30 27 6
SLC055-01 42 38 12 9
SLC055-02 45 35 12 9
SLC057 40 43 10 7
SLC058 40 33 18 8
SLC059 40 43 11 6
SLC060 42 38 14 6
SLC062 41 38 13 9
SLC062-02 20 40 20 20
SLC064 43 37 13 7
SLC065 41 40 13 6
SLC068 42 35 16 6
SLC069 36 45 18 2
SLC070 40 41 13 6
SLC071 44 36 15 6
SLC072 44 36 15 6
SLC076 44 38 13 5
SLC078 39 38 18 5
SLC080 39 22 31 8
SLC083 45 31 19 5
SLC085 44 32 20 5
SLC086 46 29 18 7
SLC090 44 39 11 6
SLC091 42 40 10 8
SLC092 38 41 15 6
SLC093 40 44 9 7
SLC094 43 42 10 5
SLC097 42 41 12 5
SLC098 44 38 13 5
SLC099 40 41 14 5
SLC100 43 37 15 5
SLC101 48 36 11 5
SLC102 47 34 14 5
SLC103 40 44 11 5
SLC105 44 39 12 5
SLC106 36 38 23 3
SLC107 43 46 8 4
SLC108 39 43 14 4
SLC109 43 42 10 5
SLC110 40 43 12 5
SLC112 45 39 11 5
SLC114 42 39 14 5
SLC115 41 40 13 5
SLC116 39 38 20 3
SLC117 39 33 25 3
SLC118 38 35 22 4
SLC119 42 40 14 4
SLC121 43 37 16 4
SLC123 40 37 18 5
SLC125 42 36 18 5
SLC128 38 28 32 3
SLC129 41 33 23 3
SLC130 40 27 31 2
SLC131 44 32 21 3
SLC132 44 29 23 4
SLC134 41 30 26 3
SLC135 38 25 36 2
SLC136 33 31 32 4
SLC137 41 32 24 4
SLC138 41 30 25 4
SLC140 32 25 42 2
SLC141 42 29 23 5
SLC142 42 31 21 6
SLC143 43 32 20 4
SLC144 41 27 28 4
SLC146 46 33 13 8
SLC147 40 39 15 7
SLC148 43 33 17 6
SLC149 42 35 17 6
SLC151-01 40 37 18 6
SLC152 42 33 20 4
SLC155 42 27 27 4
SLC156 44 30 21 4
SLC158 43 30 22 5
SLC159-01 41 29 26 5
SLC160 45 27 23 5
SLC163 41 21 35 3
SLC164 41 33 21 6
SLC166 37 16 44 2
SLC167 38 30 27 5

Note: Row total to 100 percent except for rounding errors. N = 121 of 126 Precincts and 93054 Active Registered Voters as of Jan. 10, 2020. Source: Salt Lake County Elections Clerk (2020).

Supplemental Data Archive

All data files and supporting R program code is available from the author on request (fisherka “at” csolutions.net). This supplemental data archive focuses raw data files on which this paper is based. The supplemental data archive is at url: https://drive.google.com/open?id=1uNyWQbZqNRusJe2WVd0Qi7Evdr2_fEyW. The data archive contains or references public files: