Table Supplement to Observing Aurora from Mid-Latitudes Note - March 14, 2019 Table 1 - Sample Raw K, Km and estimated Kp data from NOAA 2019d +--------------------------------------Current Quarter Daily Geomagnetic Data--------------------------------------------------+ +-------------------------Middle Latitude------------+--------------High Latitude---------+---------------Estimated------------+ +------------------------- Fredericksburg -----------+------------------College-----------+---------------Planetary------------+ +------+---+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+ |------ Date----+-A--+-----K-indices-----------------+ AP +-----K-indices-----------------+ AP +-----K-indices-----------------+ |--------------------|0h-|3h-|6h-|9h-|12h|15h|18h|24h|----|0h-|3h-|6h-|9h-|12h|15h|18h|24h|----|0h-|3h-|6h-|9h-|12h|15h|18h|24h| +------+---+----+----|---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---|----|---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---|----|---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---| | 2019 | 2 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +------+---+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+ | 2019 | 2 | 25 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +------+---+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+ | 2019 | 2 | 26 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | +------+---+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+ | 2019 | 2 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | +------+---+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+ | 2019 | 2 | 28 | 17 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 34 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | +------+---+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+ | 2019 | 3 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 36 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 24 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +------+---+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+ | 2019 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 24 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +------+---+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+ | 2019 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +------+---+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+ | 2019 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +------+---+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+ | 2019 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | +------+---+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+ | 2019 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | +------+---+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+ | 2019 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +------+---+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+ | 2019 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | +------+---+----+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+----+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+ Table 2 - Distribution and conditional probabilities of mid, high and estimated planetary kp indices greater than or equal to 6 from 1997-2018. N=8,034 days and nights. +-------------------+----------+-----------+----------+------------------+ | Count of Events | Mid. Lat | Planetary | High Lat | Event Space Days | +-------------------+----------+-----------+----------+------------------+ | Kp, freq. of days | 166 | 397 | 1492 | 8034 | | kp=>6, 1997-2018, |----------+-----------+----------+------------------| | All hours | | +-------------------+----------+-----------+----------+------------------+ | Percent of Event | 2% | 5% | 19% | 100% | | Space - All hours | | | (of 8034) | | +-------------------+----------+-----------+----------+------------------+ | Kp, freq. of days | 112 | 287 | 1115 | 8034 | | kp=>6, 1997-2018, |----------+-----------+----------+------------------| | 0-12 UTC - Night | | +-------------------+----------+-----------+----------+------------------+ | Percent of Event | 1% | 4% | 14% | 100% | | kp=>6, 1997-2018, +----------+-----------+----------+------------------| | 0-12 UTC - Night | | | (of 8034) | | +-------------------+----------+-----------+----------+------------------+ | Percent of Event | 28% | 73% | 100% | | | Space, Kp alerts |----------+-----------+----------+------------------| | (of 1492) | | +-------------------+----------+-----------+----------+------------------+ | Percent of Event | 39% | 100% | | | | Space, 0-12 UTC |----------+-----------+----------+------------------| | (112 of 287) | | +-------------------+----------+-----------+----------+------------------+ Source: Fisher 2019a; NOAA 2019d. Table 3 - Distribution and conditional probabilities of mid, high and estimated planetary kp indices greater than or equal to 6 from 1997-2018 during 0 to 12 UTC. N=40,170 nights of five three hour periods of kp measurements per night. +--------------------------+------+---------------+--------+ | Conditional Distribution | Days | Groups in Day | Groups | | by three hour groups |------+---------------+--------+ | (5 in day), not days | | | 0-12 UTC (Nighttime) | | +--------------------------+------+---------------+--------+ | Event Space | 8034 | 5 | 40170 | +--------------------------+------+---------------+--------+ | Groups, Kp 12=> 6 | | | 176 | +--------------------------+------+---------------+--------+ | Probabililty (176/40170) | | | 0.4% | +--------------------------+------+---------------+--------+ | Groups, Km_12 and | | | 170 | | Kp_12=> 6 (planetary and | | | | | mid latitude event) | | | | +--------------------------+------+---------------+--------+ | Prob(Km_12 and Kp_12 =>6 | | | 97% | | Given Kp_12 => 6) | | | | | (170 of 176) | | | | +--------------------------+------+---------------+--------+ Source: Fisher 2019a; NOAA 2019d. Table 4 - Distribution of rare mid-latitude kp=>6 events during 1997-2018, 0-12 UTC, N=112 (100%). +---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | Maximum Km level | km=>6 | km=>7 | km=>8 | km=>9 | +---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | Count days, 0-12UTC | 112 | 25 | 9 | 2 | +---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ | Percent | 100% | 22% | 8% | 2% | +---------------------+-------+-------+-------+-------+ Source: Fisher 2019a; NOAA 2019d. Table 5 - Major storms that reached the mid-latitudes with kp=>7, 1997 to 2009, 0-12 UTC, Solar Cycle 23 +------+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+ | Year | Month | Day | Am | km0 | km3 | km6 | km9 | km12 | +------+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+ | 2004 | 7 | 27 | 119 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 | +------+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+ | 2004 | 11 | 8 | 116 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 3 | +------+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+ | 2004 | 11 | 10 | 101 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 6 | +------+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+ | 2003 | 10 | 29 | 199 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 7 | +------+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+ | 2003 | 10 | 30 | 144 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +------+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+ | 2001 | 3 | 31 | 115 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 6 | +------+-------+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+ Source: Fisher 2019a; NOAA 2019d. Table 6 - Major storms that reached the mid-latitudes with kp=>7, 2010 to 2018, 0-12 UTC, Solar Cycle 24 +------+-------+-----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+ | Year | Month | Day | Am | km0 | km3 | km6 | km9 | km12 | +------+-------+-----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+ | 2015 | 6 | 23 | 47 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 4 | 4 | +------+-------+-----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+ | 2012 | 3 | 9 | 57 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 6 | +------+-------+-----+----+-----+-----+-----+-----+------+ Source: Fisher 2019a; NOAA 2019d. Table 7 - Distribution of Solar Storms with Ap=> 50 during Solar Cycle 24 (2010-2018). N=3287 or 9 years. +---------+-----------+ | Range Ap| Frequency | +---------+-----------+ | 0 | 70 | +---------+-----------+ | 10 | 2526 | +---------+-----------+ | 20 | 559 | +---------+-----------+ | 30 | 99 | +---------+-----------+ | 40 | 24 | +---------+-----------+ | 50 | 7 | +---------+-----------+ | 60+ | 2 | +---------+-----------+ | Sum | 3287 | +---------+-----------+ | Mean | 536 | | w/o 0-9 | | +---------+-----------+ | Mean | 59.6 | | Rate yr | | +---------+-----------+ | Sum | 9 | | 50-60+ | | | 9 yrs | | +---------+-----------+ | Mean | 1 | | Rate | | | 50-60+ | | | yr | | +---------+-----------+ Source: Fisher 2019a; NOAA 2019d. Table 8 - Solar storm frequency by nanoTesla range from Love and Gannon 2009 +----------------------------+--------+-------+---------------+-----------------------------------------+ | Storm strength | Count | Years | Rate per yr | Expected events per 22 year solar cycle | | (nanoTesla) | | | | | +----------------------------+--------+-------+---------------+-----------------------------------------+ | > 100 | 4.6 | 1 | 4.6 | 101 | +----------------------------+--------+-------+---------------+-----------------------------------------+ | > 200 | 9.4 | 10 | 0.9 | 21 | +----------------------------+--------+-------+---------------+-----------------------------------------+ | > 400 | 9.73 | 100 | 0.1 | 2 | +----------------------------+--------+-------+---------------+-----------------------------------------+ | > 800 | 2.86 | 1000 | 0.003 | 0.1 | +----------------------------+--------+-------+---------------+-----------------------------------------+ Source: DHS 2011 and Love and Gannon 2009. Table 9 - Frequency and density of mid-latitude storms during Solar Cycles 23 and 24, 1997-2018, 0-12 UTC, by kpm=>6, km<6, and total events, grouped by month +--------+----------------+---------------+----------------+---------------+--------------+---------------+ | Month | Mid lat. Km=>6 | Mid lat. Km<6 | Mid lat. Km=>0 | Density Km=>6 | Density Km<6 | Density Km=>0 | +--------+----------------+---------------+----------------+---------------+--------------+---------------+ | 1 | 2 | 677 | 680 | 2% | 9% | 9% | +--------+----------------+---------------+----------------+---------------+--------------+---------------+ | 2 | 6 | 615 | 623 | 5% | 8% | 8% | +--------+----------------+---------------+----------------+---------------+--------------+---------------+ | 3 | 6 | 674 | 683 | 5% | 9% | 9% | +--------+----------------+---------------+----------------+---------------+--------------+---------------+ | 4 | 15 | 642 | 661 | 13% | 8% | 8% | +--------+----------------+---------------+----------------+---------------+--------------+---------------+ | 5 | 11 | 662 | 678 | 10% | 8% | 8% | +--------+----------------+---------------+----------------+---------------+--------------+---------------+ | 6 | 10 | 638 | 654 | 9% | 8% | 8% | +--------+----------------+---------------+----------------+---------------+--------------+---------------+ | 7 | 9 | 670 | 686 | 8% | 9% | 9% | +--------+----------------+---------------+----------------+---------------+--------------+---------------+ | 8 | 11 | 670 | 689 | 10% | 9% | 9% | +--------+----------------+---------------+----------------+---------------+--------------+---------------+ | 9 | 12 | 644 | 665 | 11% | 8% | 8% | +--------+----------------+---------------+----------------+---------------+--------------+---------------+ | 10 | 15 | 662 | 687 | 13% | 8% | 9% | +--------+----------------+---------------+----------------+---------------+--------------+---------------+ | 11 | 14 | 643 | 668 | 12% | 8% | 8% | +--------+----------------+---------------+----------------+---------------+--------------+---------------+ | 12 | 2 | 678 | 692 | 2% | 9% | 9% | +--------+----------------+---------------+----------------+---------------+--------------+---------------+ | Events | 113 | 7875 | 7988 | 100% | 100% | 100% | +--------+----------------+---------------+----------------+---------------+--------------+---------------+ Source: Fisher 2019a; NOAA 2019d. Table 10 - Seasonality - Summary of Monte Carlo Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests for Uniform Distribution of Density +----------------------------+-------+---------+----------------------+ | Data | Count | p-value | Uniform Distribution | +----------------------------+-------+---------+----------------------+ | Density Km=>6, 0-12 UTC | 113 | 0.04 | No - Seasonality | +----------------------------+-------+---------+----------------------+ | Density Km=>6 Feb. to Nov. | 104 | 0.29 | Yes - No seasonality | +----------------------------+-------+---------+----------------------+ | Density Km<6, 0-12 UTC | 7875 | 0.17 | Yes - No seasonality | +----------------------------+-------+---------+----------------------+ | Density Km=>0, 0-12 UTC | 7988 | 0.19 | Yes - No seasonality | +----------------------------+-------+---------+----------------------+ | Density Kp=>6, high lat., | 1492 | <0.001 | No - Seasonality | | all hours | | | | +----------------------------+-------+---------+----------------------+ | Density Kp=>6 high lat. | 1260 | 0.22 | Yes - No seasonality | | Feb. to Nov., all hours | | | | +----------------------------+-------+---------+----------------------+ Source: Table 9 and Fisher 2019a (for high latitude kp=>6 data). Department of Homeland Security, Office of Risk Management and Analysis. May 2011. Geomagnetic Storms: An Evaluation of Risk and Assessments. Risk Management Brief. https://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/rma-geomagnetic-storms.pdf Fisher, K.A. March 14, 2019a. Tables and Analysis of NOAA Kp Indices for 1997 to 2018. Excel 2013 Spreadsheet. http://fisherka.csolutionshosting.net/astronote/notes/20190314ProbofAuroraDataStatic.xlsx Love, J. J. and Gannon, J. L. 2009. Revised Dst and the epicycles of magnetic disturbance: 1958–2007. Ann. Geophys. 27:3101–3131. http://www.ann-geophys.net/27/3101/2009/ NOAA. 2019d. Spaceweather Center Archive of SpaceWeather Indices - 1994 to 2018. Web. ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/indices/old_indices/